Paul Saffo on Embracing Uncertainty

The Commonwealth Club of California
San Francisco, CA
Apr 22nd, 2008

Paul Saffo discusses Embracing Uncertainty: Connecting Policy to Long-Range Forecasting.
A movie star as governor? No way! Planes hitting skyscrapers? The stuff of horror films! Forecasters struggle to anticipate an ever-stranger geopolitical reality. In this moment of unprecedented uncertainty and change, says Saffo, it is tempting to conclude that forecasting is as dangerous as it is futile.
In fact, connecting short-term policy to long-range forecasting is surprisingly easy - and absolutely crucial to meeting the challenges before us. All it takes is a simple shift in perspective and a few common-sense heuristics.
Saffo is a legendary technology forecaster, with over two decades of experience exploring long-term technological change and its impact on business and society - The Commonwealth Club of California







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